Six creepily masked and hooded men burst into a Tustin jewelry store, smashed glass cases with tire irons and hammers, grabbed treasures worth some $87,000, then hopped a fence onto the 55 Freeway and sped away in getaway cars.

A gaggle of black-clad thieves targeted the Gucci store in Costa Mesa’s South Coast Plaza, grabbed designer handbags worth some $100,000, then escaped.

Another video of the Topanga Mall smash and grab pic.twitter.com/mzULJBtpMy

— Los Angeles Alerts (@AlertLosAngeles) August 13, 2023

A Nordstrom was ransacked at the Westfield Topanga mall in Canoga Park (some $80,000 worth of merchandise stolen); a 30-person strong “flash mob” hit the Yves Saint Laurent store at Glendale’s Americana at Brand mall; a Riverside jewelry store owner’s son had a gun, firing once and sending two robbers running for their lives — with whatever they could carry.

All this mayhem transpired in Southern California over the last few years, and the list could go on and on. It’s the phenom that helped obliterate much of Proposition 47 (the “drug users and small-time thieves should get treatment and rehabilitation, not jail,” initiative, passed in 2014)  — and usher in its antithesis, Proposition 36 (the “arrest those robbers and put them behind bars!” initiative, passed last year).

Retail theft has, indeed, risen over the last decade — unevenly, but sometimes sharply. Still, it remains far below historical highs clocked 40 years ago, according to data crunched by the Legislative Analyst’s Office. To wit:

• In the mid-1980s, there were about 1,100 retail thefts for every 100 Californians.

• In 2023, there were about 500 retail thefts for every 100 Californians, fewer than half the number back then.

“Retail theft remains well below historical levels,” the LAO said. “Specifically, between 1985 and 2023, the retail theft rate declined by 54 percent.” And there was a  similar decline for all types of property crime over this period, including residential burglary and motor vehicle theft.

Yes, crimes in 2023 were higher than in 2014 — 11% higher, actually — and we’ll get into why in a minute. But keeping the big picture in mind puts things into perspective.

It’s also important to understand that the increases haven’t been across-the-board statewide. They’ve been concentrated in the large counties — particularly Los Angeles, Alameda, Sacramento and San Mateo, while Orange and Riverside had sizable, if smaller, jumps. Small counties, meanwhile, tended to have no jumps at all, but actual declines, likely speaking to the placement of fancy malls and pricey jewelry stores in more urban areas.

It’s hard to say exactly what happened in San Bernardino. Much crime data for 2023 went unreported, the LAO said. We’ve asked why, but the county did not get back to us by deadline.

“Retail theft has implications for economic outcomes, as well as a sense of safety, well‑being and fundamental quality of life for Californians,” the LAO said.

Catch me if you can

Why the big drop since the days of Ronald Reagan?

There have been many studies probing that question over the past four decades, and it’s likely a combination of things, including more sophisticated, data-driven approaches to crimefighting, an emphasis on boots-on-the-ground community policing strategies and a strong economy.

But then 2014 happened.

The big change in the criminal justice system that year was the well-intentioned Prop. 47. Drug users should get treatment, not prison, California voters said. Counting small crimes as third-strike felonies — and thus putting people behind bars for life — was cruel.

Which may well be true, but the effective drug treatment and rehabilitation programs needed to make that approach actually work never materialized. Addicts didn’t really get treatment or prison, and the little crimes that shouldn’t have put folks behind bars for life could be repeated with virtual impunity, so long as the stolen stuff was worth less than $950.

So not only did Prop. 47 narrow officers’ authority to make arrests for shoplifting; in 2016, Proposition 57 expanded the state’s authority to reduce prison terms for good behavior.

One might argue smaller-time crime in California became a game of “Catch me if you can.”

Between 2014 and 2015, retail theft increased by 5%, then dropped by 20% between 2015 and 2021 (about half of that decline was between 2019 and 2020, as the pandemic’s stay-at-home orders and business closures dramatically limited the opportunity for mischief).

But once things opened up, retail theft rose, perhaps by more than official numbers indicate. Officially, retail theft leapt by 32% between 2021 and 2023, the LAO said.

Prisoners had been released early to limit COVID‑19’s spread. Folks were wearing face masks, making them harder to identify. Social media allowed ne’er-do-wells to easily organize smash-and-grab attacks. Online shopping platforms made it easier to sell stolen goods. There were more self‑checkout lines and more store policies directing staffers to avoid physically confronting shoplifters, which may have emboldened shoplifters, who felt they could avoid consequences for their actions, the LAO said.

“Within the criminal justice system, the available research has generally found that two key mechanisms can affect crime rates: (1) the likelihood of apprehension for crime and (2) the number of people incarcerated at a given time who might otherwise commit crime,” the LAO said.

You think?

Fed up

Voters have demanded action. They embraced a tougher approach by approving Prop. 36, and the Legislature has passed laws targeting retail crime as well.

These changes boost law enforcement’s authority to arrest and detain shoplifters; elevate some retail theft from misdemeanors to felonies; and boost jail time for some retail crimes.

A big change: “aggregating” multiple incidents of theft. Before, I could essentially steal $949 worth of stuff from one store, and then $949 from another store, and $949 from yet another, and not be dinged with a felony because each theft fell below the $950 threshold. They (usually) couldn’t be tallied. Now, however, they can be stitched together to equal a felony.

There’s also a new crime on the books called “organized retail theft,” which can elevate orchestrated flash-and-grabs to felonies; laws that allow for felony charges when shoplifters have two or more prior convictions; and longer possible jail sentences.

“(C)hanging crimes from misdemeanors to felonies will cause people to spend a longer time incarcerated — reducing their subsequent opportunity to commit crime, the LAO said. “This change could also make it more likely for people to be arrested given that law enforcement generally has greater authority to arrest people for felonies. This, in turn, could help deter people from engaging in retail theft if it causes them to perceive a higher likelihood of apprehension.”

Online marketplaces must collect information from high‑volume, third‑party sellers who may be trafficking in stolen goods and report them to law enforcement. The California Highway Patrol is setting up regional task forces to help local law enforcement address organized retail theft and other property crimes, and nearly $100 million in grant money has been set aside for the task.

It’s going to take some time to see if this new approach makes a difference — and lawmakers should keep an eye on whether reported retail theft is actually going down, and if the benefits actually outweigh the costs, the LAO said.

Lawmakers should also watch for the uneven application of these new powers. Prosecutors in, say, Orange and Riverside counties, might be more willing to include prior convictions for shoplifters than those in, say, San Francisco and Alameda counties.

“As with any new policy, unintended consequences can occur,” the LAO said. “(D)irecting increased enforcement resources toward retail theft could cause criminals to shift their focus to other illegal sources of revenue.”

Last week, the state Attorney General released statistics showing that the overall property crime rate decreased 8.4% between 2023 and 2024. Time will tell if that holds. Stay tuned.