Gov. Gavin Newsom traded palm trees and the Pacific Ocean this week for the Atlantic and palmettos.

On July 8, the governor embarked on a two-day, multi-county tour of South Carolina with the state’s Democratic Party, a trek billed as an opportunity for Newsom to hear from rural communities that the party said is “too often left to recover alone from economic setbacks and natural disasters.”

It’s that latter part — disaster relief — that Newsom and his camp have said he’s focused on this trip.

California, reeling from the catastrophic wildfires that destroyed communities and killed 30 people six months ago, is still waiting on a $40 billion request for federal disaster relief. South Carolina, also still reeling from September’s Hurricane Helene devastation that left 50 people dead, received federal disaster aid last year.

Still, it’s impossible to ignore the massive elephant — or rather donkey — in the room, the 2028 of it all.

Newsom, longstanding denials notwithstanding, has been viewed as a presidential candidate for years now. And South Carolina, for even more years, has been a key player in national presidential politics.

The Palmetto State has earned a moniker, ‘First in the South,’ based on a consistent record for picking candidates in primary elections who eventually go on to become presidential nominees for both the Democratic and Republican parties.

In 2024, national Democrats moved the South Carolina primary to the top spot. And while it’s not yet set where it will land on the 2028 calendar, South Carolina is still expected to be an early state, if not first again.

But regardless of where it falls on the primary calendar, there’s no overstating how prominent a role South Carolina voters, particularly Black voters, play in Democratic presidential politics.

Since 1988, when South Carolina began holding presidential primaries, the winner of the Democratic primary has only failed to clinch the party’s nomination two times: John Edwards in 2004 and Jesse Jackson in 1988, both of whom were born in South Carolina. Last year, South Carolina Democratic primary voters picked President Joe Biden before he dropped out of the reelection race.

Experts say that makes Newsom’s visit to South Carolina — even this early in the cycle, even without formally declaring it to be a presidential campaign stop — a smart move. If Newsom, or any Democrat, is going to win a national election, he or she will have to win over voters less liberal than those who have supported Newsom throughout his career.

“California is going to go Democratic in the presidential election, but South Carolina is often make or break for who becomes the Democratic nominee,” said Scott Huffmon, who teaches American politics and voting behavior at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina.

“The road to the White House,” he said, “leads through South Carolina.”

‘Heads Carolina, Tails California’

Over two days, Newsom barnstormed around South Carolina in relatively rural areas, including places that overwhelmingly voted for President Donald Trump in previous elections. He met with supporters and the curious in coffee shops, churches and meeting halls.

He encouraged Democrats to stand up to Trump’s policies and didn’t shy away from talking about his home state.

At a stop in Pickens — where Trump drew tens of thousands of supporters for a 2023 rally and in a county where more than 75% of voters chose Trump in 2024 — Newsom talked about the relationship between his state and the president. He drew heavily on the administration’s actions in recent months, as Trump has deployed troops to Los Angeles amid aggressive deportation efforts, the Greenville News reported.

While Republicans and Fox News have painted California as a liberal hellscape — Rep. Sheri Biggs, a freshman Republican who represents the western part of South Carolina, sent a text message blast encouraging recipients to reject “California’s woke agenda” that includes “letting mob rule and crime run rampant” — not everyone thinks Newsom should avoid his Golden State bona fides.

California, after all, generates more economic output per person, contributes more in federal taxes and ranks better (or far better) than national averages for homicide, obesity, cancer deaths and educational attainment, among other things.

“I certainly think if you were to ask a Republican about Gov. Newsom, you’d hear things about California not being a great place to live,” said state Rep. Kambrell Garvin, a Democrat who represents Richland County in the statehouse.

“But I think if you talk to Democrats, I don’t think that perception is the same,” Garvin said. “As a lawmaker, I look to California for many of the progressive policies that are being implemented there as a template of what can be done in South Carolina.”

“Of course, there are going to be conservatives who say we don’t want to do things the way California does, but there are some actually good things happening in California that the rest of the nation can follow.”

Still, South Carolina — as it long has been for Democratic presidential hopefuls, official or not — has long been a testing ground for candidates’ messaging.

And Newsom has some work to do there, said Joshua Hollington, a Democratic voter in South Carolina, who argued that the Democratic Party, as a whole, needs to do more to win back rural communities, blue-collar workers and suburban voters.

If Newsom is to be successful, he said, the governor has to shake any reputation as “being out of touch with the average person” and solidify himself as “an everyday guy you want to have a beer with.”

“The only way to do that is to connect with rural voters,” Hollington said.

“You’ve got to get out of your posh areas and into the heartbeat of America.”

“I think it’s smart to meet people and campaign, and there’s no better way than to meet (voters) face-to-face. Good for him for coming to South Carolina,” said Rep. Neal Collins, a Republican who represents Greenville and Pickens counties in the Upstate.

“In the general, we’re maybe not as important,” said Collins, noting South Carolina has a Republican supermajority and is extremely likely to go for the Republican candidate in the general presidential election.

“But we’re immensely important for the primary.”

‘Gone to Carolina’

Newsom isn’t the only Democrat whose name is being whispered along with “2028” and “White House” who has forayed into South Carolina in recent months.

In May, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee) and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore headlined events in Columbia, the capital city.

“I would be interested to see who else is going to journey to South Carolina,” said Chase Meyer, who teaches American politics and elections at the University of South Carolina.

“How you run for president, a lot of it is determined by who else is running and how they’re running their campaigns,” Meyer added.

Take 2020, for example. That year, Meyer said, many Democratic presidential hopefuls took more left-wing positions, an attempt to woo supporters away from progressive Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. The shift, he said, left room for more moderate candidates, like then-South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and eventual nominee and president Joe Biden, to find success.

“Newsom has recently started to position himself to try to be more moderate,” Meyer said, pointing to Newsom’s podcast featuring a host of right-wing figures.

“Is that going to play well with Democratic voters? It depends on what everyone else does. If every other candidate says, ‘No, that’s horrible, I’d never talk to Steve Bannon,’ there might be an opening for such a candidate,” he said.

For Democrats, South Carolina is the place to test whether a candidate has national appeal. The state is incredibly diverse, and local voters can help champion a candidate in other southern states, including potential swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.

That means the first step for Newsom — should he decide he is running for president — is to start building a network in South Carolina, said Huffmon, the Winthrop professor who leads the school’s Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research.

“If Gavin Newsom is smart,” Meyer echoed, “he’ll be meeting with Democrats in the state legislature, local Democratic mayors, local City Council, and will put their political machinery to work behind him. That means their volunteers and political consultants.”

If history provides any lessons that might be key in the next presidential election cycle, it’s the 2008 Democratic primary where Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton clashed in South Carolina. Their battle only underscored how important Black voters, particularly Black women, are in the Democratic primary.

“Black women voters in South Carolina are very smart, and they know their power. They’re going to spot a fake appeal a mile away,” said Huffmon, saying the last candidate to court Black women voters organically was Obama.

While the former secretary of state’s strategy for winning over women was to deploy her husband, former President Bill Clinton, he ended up putting his foot in his mouth, said Huffmon. Bill Clinton, who was nicknamed the “first Black president,” was perceived as angry during the primary campaign in South Carolina, and called Obama’s opposition to the Iraq War “the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen.”

“But the Obama folks had the beauty parlor campaign. They’d call up Black beauty parlors and say, ‘Can I come and talk about this candidate who’s running?’ It’s tough to catch lightning in a bottle like that again, but you do need to find a way to appeal to African American voters, especially African American women, in a legitimate way.”

Democrats in South Carolina, said Garvin, the state representative, are looking for a leader.

“What Democrats need most right now is somebody who is willing to fight and can take the message of why being a Democrat — and what we stand for — is a positive thing,” said Garvin, who has not yet endorsed anyone for 2028.

“Democrats are at a point where we must decide who we are as a party, and what we believe,” Garvin said. “I think that we have got to do a better job of explaining to people why it’s cool to be a Democrat and why what we believe can be transformational to their lives and to our future.”

“Everything I’ve seen from Gov. Newsom thus far, he’s checked those boxes,” he added.

While Newsom has remained relatively mum on his presidential aspirations, others are less so, including one of the most important figures in South Carolina politics, longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn.

Clyburn, who is credited with saving Biden’s 2020 campaign, appeared with Newsom at a stop in Camden, just northeast of Columbia, introducing him as one of the “candidates that are running for president.” Clyburn later told reporters that he feels “good about (Newsom’s) chances” in 2028.

Just what Newsom’s future political plans are remains to be seen.

In Los Angeles, before he left for the East Coast, Newsom waved away questions ahead of the trip about 2028, insisting that it’s important to him to “work with governors, not just Democratic governors but Republican governors” on the issue of disaster relief.

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster did not meet with Newsom this week, said Brandon Charochak, a spokesperson for the Republican chief executive.

But if Newsom is preparing a run for the White House, getting to know South Carolina — its voters, its issues and maybe even just how important Joe’s Ice Cream Parlor in Easley is to the community — is a first step.