The ink was barely dry on President Donald Trump’s April tariff missive, when owners of independent nail polish brands sounded the alarm that the changes could chip away at their businesses. That shocking executive order ushered in sweeping tariffs of as much as 145% on Chinese imports. Much has changed since then. In May, the U.S. struck a trade deal with China that included a 90-day truce and reducing tariffs to a still-high 30% for most imported goods; then, in June, President Trump said a trade deal with China is “done” and tariffs on goods imported from China will total 55%, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the level won’t increase again. There’s currently a pause on tariffs of goods imported from China, effective until August. But the prolonged chaos of the past few months has dragged small beauty brands into the middle of a big trade war. And it’s created uncertainty that could leave a long-lasting smudge on business. Even the latest news doesn’t provide much reassurance, says Rachel Wraith, founder and owner of Rogue Lacquer, a Phoenix-based indie line of nail polishes. “It still feels like a slap in the face and I never feel certain with any ‘set’ decisions because everything seems to change, regardless” she tells Fast Company. Waking up each morning lately, Wraith says, has meant bracing herself for what news might come that day that will affect her livelihood. Hurdling one obstacle, she adds, makes her question what the next one will be. “The uncertainty is very hard and very stressful.” Going rogue For more than a decade, Wraith has been making customized nail polishes and she launched Rogue Lacquer in 2018. The business is a primary source of income for Wraith and her husband; he works full-time for the business, while she also has a full-time job in healthcare. The powdered pigments that Rogue imports from China are a crucial component for Wraith to create the customized nail polish colors that she sells in small batches. And there aren’t really alternative locations to source these pigments, which meant news of tariff increases left Wraith with little option but to pay up. This is a broader problem for the beauty industry as a lot of manufacturing is concentrated in China, adds Sucharita Kodali, a vice president and principal analyst at Forrester. “The issue right now is there is no definitive place that is an alternative to China because you don’t know what that situation is going to be in three months or six months,” Kodali says. “Until the dust settles, no one knows.” Advantages for big brands Even as tariff increases rocked indie beauty brands, the impact was less severe on the industry’s biggest players. Thanks to margins of about 80% to 90% on many beauty products, some companies are able to absorb higher tariffs without making price increases, Kodali says. But the longer-lasting impact tariffs will have on the beauty industry remains to be seen, notes William Curtis, senior industry and risk analyst at IBISWorld. “In the short-term, the big winners will be the companies with a more diversified, more domestic manufacturing base.” Curtis points to L’Oréal, which has been actively diversifying where it produces its broad array of beauty products in recent years. Two-thirds of the L’Oréal products sold in the U.S. are now produced in the U.S., according to company figures. Of course, moving production elsewhere isn’t an option for small beauty brands. Business owners could have taken a lesson from Trump’s handling of tariffs during his first administration, Kodali says, and their options now are rather limited, which means some will face irreparable harm. Adds Wraith: “Did anybody think to ask a small business how these decisions would affect them?” Pushback on pricing After Trump’s announcement of tariff increases in early April, many brands—including Rogue, Lurid Lacquer, Atomic Polish, and Dam Nail Polish—posted candidly on social media that their businesses would be directly impacted, even if they weren’t quite sure then by how much. Comments from customers were overwhelmingly positive, with people empathizing about the stress the uncertainty was causing. Some of that sentiment has since changed as brands have begun testing just how much they can increase prices without their polishes losing luster in the eyes of consumers. Mooncat, an indie brand of nail lacquers, announced it would increase the price of its polishes by $1 to $2 each while also upping the free shipping threshold. Most bottles of Mooncat lacquer now retail for $16 to $18—an amount some customers will happily pay, but a bridge too far for others. “I cannot ever imagine paying almost $30 (including shipping and tax) for one bottle of polish,” one person posted on a thread discussing the price changes on the RedditLaqueristas subreddit. Other customers have complained in comments on Instagram that, amid the price increases, there’s no longer transparency