By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

PHILIPPINE President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. has ordered agencies to prepare for potential spikes in global oil prices amid worsening tensions in the Middle East, a major oil-producing region, the presidential palace said on Tuesday.

Beyond fuel subsidies, the government is considering additional aid packages should prices surge, Palace Press Officer Clarissa A. Castro told a news briefing.

She said Mr. Marcos has directed the Department of Energy (DoE) to talk to oil companies to ensure adequate stockpiles and stagger fuel price adjustments to soften the impact on consumers. 

While the war with Israel has yet to hit Iran’s crude oil production and export facilities, Brent futures have risen almost 6% due to heightened risks since the close on June 12 to trade around $73.58 a barrel in Asia on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

Oil firms in the Philippines are mandated to maintain a minimum 30-day fuel inventory to help stabilize local supply. Should global crude prices breach the $80 per barrel threshold, fuel subsidies for public transport drivers and fisherfolk will be automatically triggered, Ms. Castro added.

Motorists faced another round of fuel price hikes this week, as oil companies announced increases on Monday, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains for gasoline, the third for diesel, and the second for kerosene.

The DoE’s Oil Industry Management Bureau earlier attributed the upward trend to several global factors, including stronger market sentiment from improving US-China trade relations, stalled nuclear talks between the US and Iran, and a projected surge in global oil demand over the next 25 years.

According to the Palace, the Department of Agriculture (DA) and the Department of Transportation would also be alerted to roll out the necessary support programs should tensions in the Middle East drive up fuel prices.

Jetti Petroleum, Inc. President Leo P. Bellas said they are willing to implement whatever directive the government gives.

“We are monitoring the events due to possible supply concerns,” he said in a Viber chat. “For price increases, we are willing to implement whatever will be required by the government to downstream oil industry players.”

He noted the company maintains “healthy product inventories” at its terminals, but any significant spike in local demand would affect supply and other oil companies.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the possible spike in oil prices may have an impact on inflation.

“[There could be a] slight pickup in inflation, with global crude oil prices higher by about +$8 since June 13, 2025, [when] Israel-Iran attacks started,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“[It] could also lead to some increase in the country’s trade deficit, prices of imports, and overall trade balance,” he added.

Inflation cooled to an over five-year low of 1.3% in May, as utility costs rose at a slower pace. This brought the five-month average to 1.9%, slightly below the central bank’s 2-4% target band.

An uptick in oil prices could also reduce consumers’ disposable income, Mr. Ricafort said.

Meanwhile, Management Association of the Philippines (MAP) President Alfredo S. Panlilio said the business community is concerned about the Iran-Israel conflict.

“Of course, it’s always a concern. Any war is a concern,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the MAP x KPMG Technology Summit on Tuesday.

“We’re hoping that there’s a resolution [to] that issue before it really impacts everybody globally,” he added.

Meanwhile, the Philippine government is closely monitoring possible fertilizer supply disruptions, as about 66% of the Philippines’ fertilizer imports are nitrogen-based, mostly sourced from Qatar.

Ms. Castro said Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. assured that alternative suppliers, including those in nearby countries such as Brunei, are being considered to ensure enough fertilizer supply for farmers.

The DA currently sees no long-term threat to fertilizer availability, provided that sea lanes in the region remain open, especially the Strait of Hormuz, a key global chokepoint located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.